EIA: International LNG prices rise amid Strait of Hormuz closure

Futures prices for LNG delivery to the Title Transfer Facility (TTF), the European benchmark price, increased to US$14.80 per million Btu for the week ending 24 April, 35% higher than before the closure, according to data from Bloomberg L.P. In East Asia, the front-month futures price for the benchmark Japan-Korea Marker (JKM), rose 51% over the same period to US$16.02/million Btu. In contrast, natural gas prices at the US benchmark Henry Hub have decreased 9% since 28 February due to limited opportunities for increasing LNG exports in the near term and ample domestic seasonal natural gas storage and supply.

The closure of the strait has affected over 10 billion ft³/d of global LNG supplies, or approximately 20%, mostly from Qatar’s Ras Laffan export facility. No laden LNG vessels are known to have crossed the strait between 1 March and 24 April, according to Kpler data.

The EIA expects US LNG exports will increase, but only by a small portion of the missing volumes. Since the closure, the US Department of Energy has approved two increases to terminal export authorisations to countries lacking free trade agreements (FTAs) with the US since February – Plaquemines LNG (0.5 billion ft³/d) in March and Elba Island (0.1 billion ft³/d) in April. Countries lacking FTAs are the destinations for almost all US LNG export volumes. In addition, EIA expects that approximately 2.4 billion ft3/d of DOE-authorised export capacity will come online between April and December 2026 – Golden Pass (Trains 1 - 2) and Corpus Christi Stage 3 (Trains 5 - 7).

Operators already run US LNG terminals at high utilisation rates, limiting additional natural gas export growth, which in turn limits the potential for significant price increases in the US domestic market. The US exported an estimated 17.9 billion ft³/d of LNG in March, the second-highest monthly export volume since December 2025’s record 18.4 billion ft³/d. The export terminal capacity utilisation in March amounted to 94% of the maximum DOE-approved export levels, according to the most recent Short-Term Energy Outlook and Liquefaction Capacity File. Exports rose from an estimated 17.3 billion ft³/d in February, with a 91% terminal utilisation rate.

QatarEnergy declared force majeure on 4 March, which has forced Asian buyers who import over 80% of Qatari gas to compete for spot cargoes on global markets to replace lost contract volumes. Although average weekly TTF prices have fallen from a three-year high reached in mid-March, prices remain elevated compared with February. European natural gas storage inventories finished the winter season at 28% full, below the five-year average of 41%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, which will likely require more spot cargoes to refill storage inventories prior to next winter. Asian natural gas storage capacity is less than European capacity, and JKM prices are likely to move with weather-related spot demand.

The weekly average front-month futures prices for the US benchmark Henry Hub have remained generally insulated from price volatility abroad. Henry Hub futures prices have fallen 9% since the week ending 27 February as the winter season ends and domestic consumption has declined. At the beginning of injection season, daily Henry Hub prices for the prompt-month were the lowest since October 2024.

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