EIA: latest Short-Term Energy Outlook

• Crude oil price movements: the Brent crude oil spot price has risen sharply following the onset of military action in the Middle East. Brent settled at US$94/bbl on 9 March 2026, up about 50% from the beginning of the year and the highest since September 2023. Crude oil prices have risen as petroleum shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen, and some Middle East oil production has been shut in.
• Middle East oil production: the assumption in the modelling is that the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz will cause oil production in the Middle East to fall further in the coming weeks. EIA assumes this shut-in production will gradually ease as transit through the Strait resumes.
• Crude oil price forecast: EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price will remain above US$95/bbl over the next two months, before falling below US$80/bbl in 3Q26 and around US$70/bbl by the end of the year. Prices are expected to average US$64/bbl in 2027. This price forecast is highly dependent on the modelled assumptions of both the duration of conflict in the Middle East and resulting outages in oil production.
• US crude oil production: higher oil prices lead to more US crude oil production in the forecast. EIA expects US crude oil production will average 13.6 million bpd in 2026 and rise to 13.8 million bpd in 2027. The 2027 forecast is 0.5 million bpd higher than last month’s forecast.
• Natural gas prices; although reduced LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz have caused the price of natural gas in Europe and Asia to increase, it is expected that US natural gas prices will be relatively unaffected by this development. In the forecast, the Henry Hub spot price averages about US$3.80 per million Btu in 2026, or 13% less than the forecast last month. Prices in the early part of the forecast are lower because of milder-than-forecast temperatures in February that left more natural gas in storage than expected. The Henry Hub spot price averages nearly US$3.90 per million Btu in 2027, 12% lower than the forecast last month. Lower prices in 2027 mostly reflect more associated natural gas production as a result of the recent increase in oil prices and the related increase in production later in the forecast.
• Natural gas production: higher crude oil production results in more associated natural gas production. EIA expects marketed natural gas production to average 121 billion ft³/d this year, an increase of 2% from 2025. Production rises by an additional 3% in 2027 to reach 124 billion ft³/d. The 2027 forecast is almost 2 billion ft³/d higher than last month’s outlook.
• Natural gas inventories: EIA expects US natural gas inventories to end the withdrawal season in March around 1840 billion ft³/d, which is near the five-year average (2021 - 2025). Storage withdrawals slowed in February, as milder weather moved across much of the country, following historic withdrawals in January related to Winter Storm Fern and subsequent cold weather.

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