Expanding strategic oil stocks in China support crude oil prices

The stock builds in China limited the downward price pressure that would otherwise be expected with growing inventories, keeping the Brent crude oil spot prices in a relatively tight range around US$68/bbl in the 2Q25 and 3Q25.

EIA estimates global petroleum inventories rose by an average of 1.8 million bpd in the 2Q25 and 3Q25 in the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). Global oil inventories have been growing in 2025 as crude oil production from OPEC+ members and non-OPEC+ producers in North and South America has outpaced global demand growth. Between April and August (the latest estimates available), growth in China alone averaged 1.1 million bpd. Similar levels of global inventory growth would typically put downward pressure on crude oil prices; however, the price of Brent increased slightly during this period, averaging US$68/bbl in 2Q25 and US$69/bbl in 3Q25.

EIA estimates total liquid fuels inventories in non-OECD countries, including China, grew by an average of 0.9 million bpd from January through August 2025. They estimate that on average, 0.9 million bpd of crude oil and condensate was added to oil inventories in China, making up most of the estimated global inventory builds of 1.4 million bpd over the same period.

China does not report data on its oil inventories, so assessment is based on China’s stock growth based on imports, exports, refining, and oil inventory data from third-party and official sources. EIA estimates the additions to oil inventories in China by balancing crude oil and condensate production, reported by the China National Bureau of Statistics, along with imports, refinery runs, and export data from a collection of ship-tracking and third-party sources. Depending on the source used and assumptions made, the range between different stock build estimates is 0.5 million bpd on average and can be as large as 1.1 million bpd, so an average is taken for this comparison. Although some portion of China’s refinery capacity can utilise heavy fuel oil, the assumed refinery run numbers are strictly crude oil for these estimates. In addition, since public reports that China directed its National Oil Companies to add barrels of oil to inventories, they assume both commercial and official government storage facilities can be considered as part of their strategic inventory stockpile.

Although the estimates are based on limited information, they support the idea that inventory growth in China was not available for trade on the global market, supporting crude oil prices.

The numerous geopolitical risks, along with shifting global oil trade flows and increased use of shadow tanker fleets due to sanctions, increase the uncertainty around estimating global oil balances in the STEO. Although the estimated global oil inventory builds to accelerate in the STEO, averaging 2.2 million bpd on from 4Q25 through 2026, the portion of this estimate that will show up in visible oil inventories and influence oil prices remains uncertain.

EIA currently forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will fall from an average of US$68/bbl in September to an average of US$52/bbl in the 1Q26, when global oil inventory builds are estimated to be at their peak in the STEO. If China continues to add to oil inventories over the forecast at a rate similar to the 0.9 million bpd from January through August of this year, crude oil prices could remain higher than the forecast. Conversely, a slowdown in China’s oil inventory builds would likely put downward pressure on oil prices as more oil shows up in visible oil inventory data.

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