Brent crude oil prices are projected to average US$73/bbl in 2025, down US$7/bbl from 2024, according to Wood Mackenzie’s latest monthly oil market outlook.
The US$73/bbl forecast for 2025 is revised down US$0.40/bbl from the early February monthly report.
The outlook is primarily shaped by two factors: OPEC+ production plans and US tariff policies.
Ann-Louise Hittle, Vice President of Oils Research at Wood Mackenzie, stated: "We’re seeing a complex interplay of supply and demand factors. While global demand is expected to increase by 1.1 million bpd in 2025, non-OPEC production is forecasted to rise by 1.4 million bpd, potentially outpacing demand growth."
Key points from the forecast include:
- OPEC+ plans to increase production in small monthly increments from April 2025 through September 2026. Postponing this plan would support prices and could offset the impact of additional US tariffs.
- Global economic growth for 2025 is projected at 2.8%, but this could be adjusted downward by around 0.5% depending on potential trade war scenarios.
- Slower GDP growth could reduce the oil demand increase in 2025 by about 0.4 million bpd.
- The annual average for Brent crude could be US$3 to US$5/bbl lower if oil demand growth weakens.
Wood Mackenzie emphasised that these projections are subject to change based on global economic conditions, tariff and trade policies, and OPEC+ decisions.
“Slower GDP growth would put the demand gain in 2025 about 0.4 million bpd less than the current projection for the year,” said Hittle. “The resulting 0.7 million bpd year-on-year gain would be surpassed to a greater degree by the increase in non-OPEC supply, the majority of which is from conventional projects, so largely independent to oil price. This risk would leave little room for OPEC+ to pursue its plan to bring output back into the market.”