Global oil market assumptions
"We forecast oil production in the Middle East will rise in the coming months because of gradually increasing flows through the Strait of Hormuz and the use of alternative routes out of the region, according to our September 2026 STEO. However, we assume some constraints to exporting oil from the Middle East will persist through the end of the year, which keeps crude oil production in the region below pre-conflict averages until 2Q27."
Global oil prices
"Global oil prices rose to an average of US$91/bbl in August, US$7/bbl higher than in July. Prices remain elevated in response to falling global oil inventories, which we estimate have decreased by 400 million bbl so far this year. We expect inventories will continue falling through the end of 2026, which will keep prices near the August monthly average in the coming months. We now forecast the Brent crude oil spot price to average around US$90/bbl in 2H26. As oil production rises into next year, and as inventories rebuild, we expect the Brent spot price to gradually fall to an average of US$74/b in 2027."
Distillate fuel oil inventories
"We forecast US distillate fuel oil inventories will drop below 100 million bbl in September and will remain below the five-year (2021 - 2025) low through much of 2027. Tightness in the global distillate market has raised domestic prices and incentivised US exporters to increase distillate exports. We assume global production of distillate fuel will remain below last year’s levels in the coming months, contributing to low US diesel inventories and high diesel prices."
Natural gas storage
"US natural gas inventories are on track to be above the five-year average at the start of winter. We forecast natural gas inventories will total 3969 billion ft3 on 31 October 2026 – the end of the injection season – 5% above the five-year average. Rising natural gas production in the Permian and Haynesville regions has supported inventory builds over the summer."