In its latest 'Short-Term Energy Outlook', the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that US LNG exports will continue to increase as five LNG export projects start operations and ramp up production by the end of 2027.
The EIA also forecasts increased natural gas pipeline exports, mainly to Mexico. In its forecast, net exports of US natural gas (exports minus imports) grow 18% to 18.7 billion ft3/d in 2026. In 2027, net exports increase another 10% to 20.5 billion ft3/d.
The EIA forecasts that US LNG exports rise 1.9 billion ft3/d in 2026 to average 17 billion ft3/d and increase by an additional 9% (1.5 billion ft3/d) in 2027. It forecasts natural gas pipeline exports to grow by 4% (0.4 billion ft3/d) in 2026 and 2% (0.2 billion ft3/d) in 2027.
The EIA expects US LNG export terminals will run at slightly higher utilisation rates in 2026 despite already running at relatively high rates in 2025 because recent disruptions to LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz are increasing demand for LNG cargoes from outside the strait. The disruptions, mostly concentrated in Qatar, currently represent over 10 billion ft3/d, or 20% of global supply. Qatar also sustained damage to 17% of its export capacity after an 18 March attack on the Ras Laffan LNG export facility damaged two liquefaction trains. QatarEnergy estimates repairs on the damaged trains could take up to five years.
Current US peak export capacity is 18.3 billion ft3/d. In 2026, Corpus Christi Stage 3 will start up trains 5 – 7 (0.6 billion ft3/d combined), and Golden Pass LNG will start up its first two trains (1.4 billion ft3/d). The EIA expects Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 (1.6 billion ft3/d), Rio Grande LNG Trains 1 and 2 (1.4 billion ft3/d), and the final train of Golden Pass LNG (0.7 billion ft3/d) will begin exports next year. In addition to these new terminals, Plaquemines LNG and Elba Island LNG received US Department of Energy (DOE) approval in March and April 2026 to increase their permitted exports by 0.5 billion ft3/d and 0.1 billion ft3/d, respectively.
In 2025, US LNG exports to Europe reached a record 10.3 billion ft3/d, up from 6.3 billion ft3/d in 2024 and accounted for 68% of LNG export volumes, according to the EIA's 'Natural Gas Monthly'. Exports to Italy (+0.5 billion ft3/d) and Poland (+0.3 billion ft3/d) rose the fastest in Europe. Exports to Asia fell from 4 billion ft3/d in 2024 to 2.5 billion ft3/d in 2025, representing 16% of LNG export volumes. China-bound US LNG exports fell to zero in 2025 from 0.6 billion ft3/din 2024 as traders resold cargoes due to trade tensions.
Additionally, exports to Egypt quadrupled from 0.3 billion ft3/d in 2024 to 1.2 billion ft3/d in 2025, which drove a 0.7 billion ft3/d increase in exports to the rest of the world.